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Dear Clients and Friends of Insight, We began the new year with the consensus view from market participants and strategists that our economy would slow down from 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter. It would eventually turn negative in 2023, leaving the economy in a “hard landing” recession. Forecasts for Gross Domestic Product for the year were clustered between 0% and 1%. Inflation was to continue moderating, averaging around 3% for the entire year. Though with much less agreement, stock...

Dear Clients and Friends of Insight,It seems almost everyone is pleased to see 2022 come to a close. The year brought many challenges and disappointments to the world. Investors of all stripes suffered losses from global bear markets. Our 2022 letters chronicled the breadth and magnitude of these losses, ranging from popular growth stocks which fell over 30%, to esoteric investments such as crypto-currencies and non-fungible tokens which saw their values collapse. Even the bond market...

Dear Clients and Friends of Insight, The Federal Reserve a few weeks ago affirmed their commitment to continue their restrictive policies aimed toward taming inflation, and Chairman Powell warned that the economy may suffer as a result. This alert, after they have already aggressively raised their target interest rate four times for a total of 3.00% this year, took many investors by surprise. Somewhat complacent during the summer, these investors took the Fed’s preemptive warning seriously and...

Dear Clients and Friends of Insight, The news turned continually more negative for the economy as the second quarter unfolded. Whether it was more persistent inflation, higher interest rates, rising inventories, or falling consumer and business confidence, market participants viewed the data points as valid indicators that our economy might soon slip into recession. Furthermore, the economy could ultimately endure an extended period of stagflation, which denotes elevated inflation, higher...

Dear Clients and Friends of Insight,Considering the numerous challenges investors faced in the first quarter, we are pleased to report that Insight’s client portfolio values held up quite well, which we’ll share below. First, here is a quick recap of the key challenges from the first quarter. Economic growth around the globe has slowed from the post-Covid rebound. The Federal Reserve, along with other major central banks, finally began raising interest rates. Inflationary pressures continue as...

Dear Clients and Friends of Insight, Welcome to the new year!  Before we review 2021, I have a prediction for 2022 – it will be remembered as the year of moderation.  In contrast, 2020 and 2021 will surely be remembered for their extremes.  I hope I am correct. The list of last year’s extremes is long but here are a few:  continuing expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, escalating inflation with home and energy prices exploding, frenetic trading in cryptocurrencies and MEME stocks,...

Dear Clients and Friends of Insight, Those of you who have been long-time readers of Insight’s letters know that we have held steadfast with our positive view toward the U.S. stock market and the rewards of stock ownership, generally.  This view has been based on our strong belief in the underlying strength and resiliency of the U.S. economic system and its powerful influence on the global economy.  Over these years, investors have endured a string of serious challenges which have...

Dear Clients and Friends of Insight, In our April letter we expressed concern that accelerating economic growth due to pent up demand, supported by massive government spending and stimulative monetary policy, yet constrained by supply disruptions, would likely lead to higher inflation.  We began discussing the implications for investors if these expected situational price increases become persistent in the years ahead.  We have discussed the implication for bond investors, which is...

Dear Clients and Friends of Insight, Our letters usually address what is most important within the macro environment – how it will likely impact investors generally, what our overall investment strategy is in response, and how client portfolios will likely perform. We put most of our emphasis on our stock investments (owned for growth in both capital and income) rather than our bond holdings (owned for stable capital and fixed income). However, in today’s unprecedented conditions, the bond...